GMP1 As Canary In A Coal Mine (again)

Via David Broder's latest column:

Plouffe [Obama's campaign manager] said that "turnout is the big variable," and the campaign is devoting an unusually large budget to register scads of new voters and bring them to the polls. "That's how we win the Floridas and Ohios," he said, mentioning two states that went narrowly for George W. Bush. "And that's how we get competitive in the Indianas and Virginias," two of six or seven states that long have been Republican -- but are targets this year.

"That's why I pay more attention to the registration figures than to the polls I see at this time of year," Plouffe said. "The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them."

And Plouffe is putting his money where his mouth is (or not putting his money).

But meanwhile, David Brooks sees Unhappy Warrior McCain doing better right now then he thinks that Happy Warrior McCain would be doing.

We don't happen to believe this, but we recognize that we're in the minority opinion right now.

Campaign strategy is a funny thing. Months and months and months of set-up to lock in that final 14-day push and election day narrative.

Remember, many people thought that Rudy Giuliani's Florida strategy was great ("Hey, look at our national numbers! We're strong baby! Strong!").

Right up until the Florida Primary.

And by then it was far too late.

Well Heck, We Were Snarking About Wannabe Cable TV "Political Strategists" 4 Months Ago

The Politico's Ben Smith is promoting a story by his colleague Daniel Libit about "make-believe political strategists on TV".

Righteous.

So don't blame us for feeling obligated to dig out this post we did 4 months ago on the exact same topic.

Along with an accompanying YouTube clip of "Republican strategist" Katie Levinson trying to sort it all out:



It's historical.

And brings a little smile to our face every time we see it.

Pathetic

Rudy Giuliani has $3.6 million in campaign debt?!!??

Good heavens, the Sunshine State must be an expensive place to eat a steak dinner in a private room.

But give the former Mayor credit: He ran an incredibly expensive, unsuccessful non-campaign that did nothing but raise his own profile (in turn increasing the amount of money he will make lobbying/giving speeches) and now he's going to get the GOP to bankroll most of his failed run at the presidency.

Brilliant!

Actually, it's really kind of pathetic. For everyone involved.

March 29, 2008, The Day Hiz Honor's Numbers For A NY Governor's Run Hit The High Water Mark

The 3rd leg of the Rudy Giuliani Book Tour looks like it might be firing up.

Noted: We will drive Al-Qaeda from Albany, back across the boarder and into Canada!!!!

You heard it here first.

Snark.

Giuliani: You Can Always Go Home Again

The WSJ has the score.

While participants of Texas social gatherings brace themselves for this:

What?!?!??!! We've Always Had The DEEPEST Respect For America's Mayor!

Welcome aboard. Sir.

The Giuliani Campaign Autopsy (UPDATED)

Why Rudy Giuliani blew apart in the 2008 Republican Primary:

1. Giuliani '08 was always a book tour. Never a presidential campaign. You have to play to stay.

2. 9/11 does not a message make. Especially in 2008.

3. Bernard Kerik.

4. National polls mean next to nothing in a Presidential Primary fight. Even if you want them to.

5. Candidate arrogance (with no real good reason).

6. Family/Spouse issues.

7. John McCain never went away.

8. Staff arrogance (with absolutely no good reason)

9. Giuliani Partners.

10. (past) Stances on Life/Immigration/Gun/Homosexual issues

11. Any moderate Republicans attracted to Giuliani's stances on social issues were turned off by Rudy's stances on torture and Guantanamo Bay.

12. Headaches, (not credible and unconfirmed) bomb threats and taking phone calls during speeches.

13. Did we mention that you have to play to stay?

---

(Updated) The very savvy Mark Halperin has his own take here.

Florida Pretending, Who Is & Who Ain't

We'll know very shortly.

But the high turnout in Florida should make one GOP camp feel cautiously optimistic. And one camp not so much.

McCain Light

The former Mayor's close in the Sunshine State.

But with Johnny Mac in the race, what's Rudy's justification?

Uh....

A Quick Sunshine State Question After The Latest Poll Numbers...

If the Florida media spends the next 6 days pounding the "Rudy is cooked" drum (and it looks like they already have already started in St. Petersburg), does Rudy's support erode further because Florida voters want to vote for someone that they perceive could actually win?

We think that the answer is yes.

So then the question is, where does Rudy's support go?

Into the waiting arms of John McCain?

Maybe so.

Maaaaaaaaaaaybe so.

Latest Florida Poll Numbers: Rudy Getting Ready To Cue Some Sugar Ray

When It's Over.

It's over.

The February 5th (and beyond) Plan: Delegates, Dollars & Media!

The race is about to (really) go national. Never to return to anything less.

There are 6 days between the Florida Primary and Super Tuesday.

Which means that it's go time for campaign strategists and schedulers.

Some Super Tuesday questions that the campaigns are wrestling with:

1. What February 5th states can my candidate most effectively compete in for delegates? What about non-binding contests, do they matter or can we worry about those delegates at the convention when we have momentum? Do winner take all contests help or hurt my candidate?

2. Where can the candidate raise money? Is a successful high dollar event in a February 5th state that my candidate probably won't win worth it?

3. Local media hits. Local media hits. Local media hits.

4. Good Christ LA is an expensive media market!

5. How does the campaign keep the traveling press pack fed, watered and online?

6. If Mitt Romney wins Florida or comes in a close second does Ann let him open up his checkbook and write himself a $30 million dollar check? Does Romney's ability to self-fund make him the GOP frontrunner right up until he gives his concession speech?

7. Are we flying by the seat of our pants or do we actually know what we're doing?

8. Does it really matter if we're flying by the seat of our pants or if we know what we're actually doing?

9. Are there really no atheists in foxholes?

Stay tuned!

You Have To Play To Stay (Part 2)

Ugly poll numbers for Rudy Giuliani out of New York State.

Not that it's surprising.

The U.S. Economy? Shoot, I've Got That To Go.

The U.S. markets are closed today due to the Martin Luther King holiday.

Most of the rest of the global markets are open however. And bleeding.

Maybe there is no such thing as a free lunch?

Shocking.

Maybe it's time to start listening to David Walker and "stop digging"?

Shocking.

So Congress/Presidential candidates - "stop digging" means no new tax cuts and no Christmas Tree fiscal stimulus packages.

Just. Cut. Government. Spending (and all that waste).

And. Fix. The. Entitlement. Programs.

Yeah it hurts. And it will for awhile. But we brought this on ourselves.

And our kids will thank us.

And nobody sent you all to Washington to make the easy calls.

Time to man (woman) up.

We're just saying.

The Farce That Is Giuliani's Fortress Florida

Take a good, hard look at this.

And then ask yourself: Why do Republican voters come back to Rudy Giuliani in Florida?

He's already living there. He's already on the air there. He's already phone banking there. He's already blanketing the state with mail there.

And yet Rudy is still bleeding Sunshine State support.

Can Rudy Giuliani expect to contrast himself so well with the winner of South Carolina and Mitt Romney that Florida voters swing back to him? Let alone with whoever else is left when Florida rolls around? Probably (almost certainly) not.

Can Rudy Giuliani expect that Florida voters will wake up the day after South Carolina and say to themselves, "Wow, this race is still a muddle. I'm going with Rudy"? Probably (almost certainly) not.

Several smart folks have spend the last few days asking: Does momentum matter in 2008?

And the answer is: Yes! Of course it does.

The only winner of the first three contests who did not get a tangible bump from their win was Mitt Romney in Michigan.

And we would argue that the reason for that is because 1. Michigan ain't New Hampshire, Iowa or South Carolina and therefore nobody really cared about the Michigan Primary (besides Romney and McCain), 2. Whoever might have cared about Michigan was told by Team McCain that Romney is a "native son" who spent zillions and 3. Clinton and Obama were sucking all the oxygen out of Michigan's earned media cycles with their race debate.

Noted: But even after all that, we've still not downplaying the fact that Romney had to win Michigan and John McCain would have loved to.

In Iowa, Mike Huckabee became a GOP contender overnight when he won. And it gave him the name ID and the resources to place third in New Hampshire, third in Michigan and gives him a shot to win South Carolina.

In New Hampshire, John McCain came back from the dead and got a bounce in South Carolina, he got a bounce in Florida and he got a bounce in the national polls (which don't mean squat).

So momentum matters. Granted, to different candidates in different places it may matter more or it may matter less, but it matters.

But something else matters as well: You have to play to stay.

And through Iowa and through New Hampshire and through Michigan and (almost) through South Carolina Rudy Giuliani has been nowhere. Except fighting for position with Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul and uncommitted.

And he's watched his Florida numbers drop (drop, drop, still dropping!) because of it.

And we think that Mitt Romney (and his zillions), whoever wins South Carolina and maybe the 2nd place winner out of South Carolina are going to come roaring into Florida - muddle or not - and they are going to roll right over Rudy Giuliani's firewall.

Because why do those Florida voters come back to Rudy?

The NY Post Beats Rudy Like A Drum

The NY Post!

Noted: Wasn't Hiz Honor supposed to be friendly with the paper's owner or something?

Anyway, it's ugly.

Really ugly.

But, dare we say it, oh so true:

But there's only one GOP candidate that beats all the rest at being a loser: Rudy Giuliani.

He has perfected the art of underperforming to the point that his campaign now insists it was all part of his game plan.

He's been reduced to watching from the sidelines and praying for other people to lose - like McCain in Michigan so his momentum would be stalled - rather than getting in the game and winning himself.

In fact, Rudy's campaigned so badly that the latest poll shows him losing New Jersey, which had a front-row seat for his shining moment during 9/11.

Even fringe candidate Ron Paul - the million-to-one long shot everybody picks on to make themselves look good - is beating Giuliani.

Paul, who finished ahead of Giuliani in Michigan, currently has twice as much claim on the Republican nomination as "America's Mayor."

He's picked up two delegates.

Giuliani? He's got just one.

We smell a rock reference.

Take it away Beck!

The Ultimate (I'm Not Really A) Republican Pander

The largest tax cut in the history of the universe!

Without any plan to have the largest spending cut in the history of the universe!

Just what our economy needs right now.

Not.

GOP Scramble

Mitt Romney just won Michigan.

Good for him.

And the GOP race is officially a scramble. Again.

On to South Carolina.

Where we think that it's a must win (or rock solid 2nd place) for John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson.

Because Romney's got the money to hang around forever. And the other three don't.

And BTW, Rudy's already cooked.

Stand by for sh*t to get silly.

Again.

You Can't Go 0 For 4 And Expect To Win Florida (or anything)? Shocking.

Rudy Giuliani is going to go 0 for 4 heading into the Florida contest.

His poll numbers in the Sunshine State? Dropping.

His national finance chair? He's quit.

His staff? Working without pay (those who are left).

And the best news for Team Giuliani? There are still 14 or 15 days (and a trillion news cycles) before anyone starts paying even a little attention to what the former national front runner has to say down in Florida.

14 or 15 days?

Can anyone say free fall?

Oh Look, It's The Happy Horsesh*t Train!

Why does Rudy's campaign feel more and more like Bush '08 everyday?

And, before our conservative friends get their banana hammocks in a bunch over this post, let it be known that we like tax cuts.

Who doesn't?

But if you don't have a way to pay for tax cuts worth "trillions(!!!!)" you're not talking GOP values, you're talking happy horsesh*t.

That our kids (and our kid's kids) are going to have to eat (paging David Walker).

And has anyone, and we mean anyone, seen a Giuliani plan for cutting the federal budget by anything close to a trillion dollars?

Well then, Team Giuliani better get on that, January 20th 2008 is right around the corner.