As in, we're eating it.
Daddy always said, "You win some and you lose some."
And, on the narrow question of when Gardner will actually schedule the primary, we were wrong.
Because New Hampshire is going in January.
Not December like we had predicted.
GMP1 doesn't understand the decision.
But that's why he's Mr. Gardner.
And we're just Clacker.
Here is the problem for New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation:
Wyoming is selecting its GOP delegates on January 5th.
Conventional wisdom says that Gardner will set a January 8th date for New Hampshire.
Wyoming gets about as many delegates (percentage) as New Hampshire does.
So what happens if the winner of Wyoming is not the same as the winner of New Hampshire?
Well, the Wyoming winner wouldn't be making a "perfect" argument on January 9th if he said, "Team Romney/McCain might have taken New Hampshire yesterday, but we took Wyoming 3 days ago. And we both got about the same number of delegates."
But it's not a terrible argument either. Especially for a campaign that is forced by circumstance (they lost!) to make it.
Muddied messages the day after the New Hampshire Primary is something Bill Gardner would really like to avoid.
Which is why we still think that a New Hampshire December Primary is the most likely.
In our humble opinion.
We've been saying for 10 months that the current primary calendar is a clusterf*ck.
And guess what, it still is.
With no end in sight.
Of course, GMP1 still believes that the NH Primary is going to be in December. And yes, we recognize that we hold the minority position.
That said, we think the thing to watch over the next few days (weeks) is if Bill Gardner sets a December date do some 1st tier campaigns pull out of New Hampshire and not compete as they have been threatening to do behind closed doors?
Hard to imagine.
But then again...
Honestly, the first-in-the-nation Primary is going to be in December.
Noted: This is only shocking to people who haven't been paying attention or those who aren't on the ground in the Granite State.
Honestly, we're not even going to begin to speculate what this all means for New Hampshire post-2008.
Noted: Not yet anyway.
Phil Elliott has the "responsible" MSM story on where everything stands right now.
And yes, the Primary calendar is a clusterf*ck.
But it has been for the last 12 months.
The primary calendar is still very much in play.
Because Wyoming is still screwing with Bill Gardner's world. Hard.
A problem for Gardner that we wrote about all the way back in March.
But when we posted our Wyoming story we were promptly told "tsk-tsk" by a young, New Hampshire based political reporter with impeccable sources.
"Wyoming? Jesus Christ! It will be a cold day in hell when a 'major' Republican candidate sets foot in Wyoming," our friend said.
Or something like that.
So we bet our friend a beer.
And waited. For hell to freeze over.
Which it now has.
And it's a serious problem for NH's first-in-the-nation defenders.
Two up-front disclaimers.
First, we don't much like polls. Especially '08 polls taken before the Iowa Caucus. Too much voodoo magic.
Second, the dates of the primary calendar are still fluid.
That said...
It seems to us that a lot of folks (particularly inside-the-beltway types) are beginning to talk about Rudy Giuliani as the "inevitable" or "likely" or "presumptive" Republican nominee.
"Look at Rudy's national poll numbers!" Yes-Men with cell phones slobber all over themselves in Manchester's eating and drinking establishments.
And, the Yes-Men hacks are right, Rudy is leading in most national GOP polls.
But so what?
Because Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa (RCP Average +16), New Hampshire (RCP Average +4) and Michigan (RCP Average +7).
And because Mitt Romney is leading in the 3 primary states likely to go first in 2008, it is our humble opinion that Mitt Romney is currently the GOP front-runner. Without peer.
If Team Romney wins Iowa (which they should), New Hampshire (only McCain can beat them there) and Michigan (they loved Mitt's dad), Mitt Romney is going to take out his checkbook and write himself a $100 million dollar check.
And then Team Romney is going to go up "absolutely everywhere".
And no Romney GOP opponent will survive that hurricane of earned and paid media.
And by the time Team Giuliani's "February 5th Strategy" actually starts, it will be over.
All but the crying.
The Michigan story, per the AP.
When does Iowa go? 2007!
When does New Hampshire go? 2007!
We're just saying (educated guessing).
We have sources.
Noted: No, we're not counting our mom. This time.
Sources who have told us, consistently for 10 months, that New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner will follow state law when setting the NH Primary date.
And there is nothing in NH state law that says Bill Gardner is going to cough up a primary date at a press conference tomorrow with some South Carolina official.
Why would Gardner rush? And what does some "wink and a nod deal" with South Carolina REALLY mean to Bill Gardner at the end of the day?
He wouldn't and nothing.
And we still think this puppy goes in 2007.
We've been saying it for months.
What impact will the front-loaded 2008 primary calendar have on the various presidential candidates?
Beats the hell out of us.
If anyone tells you that they "know" what the impact will be (or even "sorta know") they are lying.
The only thing that we claim to "know" is that 1. the whole process is a clusterf*ck and 2. New Hampshire is more important than ever.
And into this great unknown universe wades the Washington Post with a new project tittled "Fast-Track Campaign".
You gotta like Chris Cillizza and Paul Kane's moxie.
And, you gotta love the interactive primary map.
Which is why we are linking to the site.
But even the great Washington Post needs to be very careful that it doesn't find itself using the expression "we know" in regards to 2008.
Because they don't.
And we know that we're just saying.
NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner does a VERY nice interview with Victory NH.
2nd Draft Noted: Hat tip to Harry Levine. The interview is detailed and an excellent primer on the Primary. We should have noted this in the 1st draft of our post Harry!
The Gardner quote that the Victory NH press release is trumpeting:
We’re absolutely determined to protect it, and we will. So if that means having our primary on a date other than the date the DNC would like us to, we’re going to have it at a time that does protect the tradition — even if that means it happens in 2007. This has happened before, and we’re going to honor the tradition, and that’s the way it’s going to be.
GreenMountainPolitics1 is NOT a gossip column.
Shudder the thought.
However (and there is ALWAYS a however), every once in a short while we come across something that is just too good to pass up.
As happened tonight at the Manchester restaurant, Z Food And Drink.
We've been hearing for months that New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner was considering holding the '08 New Hampshire Primary in '07. Around Christmas.
Of course, we never heard that "rumor" from anyone worth quoting (good guys and girls though they were).
Tonight was different.
Tonight we heard that Bill Gardner and his office are "actively" and "officially" exploring dates to hold the '08 New Hampshire Primary between Thanksgiving and Christmas of '07.
And, tonight we heard it from a fellow who would know. No Snark.
Of course, we're just a humble Blogspot Blog so take us with a grain of salt.
Salt.
