Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Rudy Giuliani Seems Pretty Confident, For A Man In 2nd Place

Two up-front disclaimers.

First, we don't much like polls. Especially '08 polls taken before the Iowa Caucus. Too much voodoo magic.

Second, the dates of the primary calendar are still fluid.

That said...

It seems to us that a lot of folks (particularly inside-the-beltway types) are beginning to talk about Rudy Giuliani as the "inevitable" or "likely" or "presumptive" Republican nominee.

"Look at Rudy's national poll numbers!" Yes-Men with cell phones slobber all over themselves in Manchester's eating and drinking establishments.

And, the Yes-Men hacks are right, Rudy is leading in most national GOP polls.

But so what?

Because Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa (RCP Average +16), New Hampshire (RCP Average +4) and Michigan (RCP Average +7).

And because Mitt Romney is leading in the 3 primary states likely to go first in 2008, it is our humble opinion that Mitt Romney is currently the GOP front-runner. Without peer.

If Team Romney wins Iowa (which they should), New Hampshire (only McCain can beat them there) and Michigan (they loved Mitt's dad), Mitt Romney is going to take out his checkbook and write himself a $100 million dollar check.

And then Team Romney is going to go up "absolutely everywhere".

And no Romney GOP opponent will survive that hurricane of earned and paid media.

And by the time Team Giuliani's "February 5th Strategy" actually starts, it will be over.

All but the crying.