Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Wyoming Gets Its 2nd Big GOP Visit, Will Vote On January 5th

Here is the problem for New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation:

Wyoming is selecting its GOP delegates on January 5th.

Conventional wisdom says that Gardner will set a January 8th date for New Hampshire.

Wyoming gets about as many delegates (percentage) as New Hampshire does.

So what happens if the winner of Wyoming is not the same as the winner of New Hampshire?

Well, the Wyoming winner wouldn't be making a "perfect" argument on January 9th if he said, "Team Romney/McCain might have taken New Hampshire yesterday, but we took Wyoming 3 days ago. And we both got about the same number of delegates."

But it's not a terrible argument either. Especially for a campaign that is forced by circumstance (they lost!) to make it.

Muddied messages the day after the New Hampshire Primary is something Bill Gardner would really like to avoid.

Which is why we still think that a New Hampshire December Primary is the most likely.

In our humble opinion.