Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Johnny Mac knows what he is talking about.
Willard does not.
Note McCain's clenched jaw at 2:50 on the counter as Romney just talks (panders) and talks (panders) and talks (panders).
We don't think Mr. Hanoi Hilton is very fond of Mr. Water Ski Out Past The Sandbar.
It's probably an "experience" thing.
But it all looks so peaceful from space.
Ana can tell you what happened last night.
Her debate liveblog was pee your pants funny.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Very little better.
Say hello to Team Edwards nifty "37 Days Until The New Hampshire Primary" video.
It even has a special message from John Edwards at the end.
The video was posted on the Edwards campaign website yesterday, November 27th.
When the countdown to the New Hampshire primary was actually 42 days.
And the Iowa caucus was the one that was 37 days out.
But who's counting?
Swampland has audio of a Team Edwards conference call earlier this morning with reporters.
This is the first time - that we know of - that a campaign conference call has been recorded for the general public and then disseminated by a major news organization.
Hey, when the cost of publishing is zero and reporters and the campaign hacks that they cover both love to hear themselves talk, it was only a matter of time before this happened.
And the audio of the call is kind of interesting.
If you're the kind of person who likes being on conference calls to begin with. And you don't mind hearing a lot of "ummms" and "you know" and "like".
(UPDATED) We knew this was coming.
Our friends over at GraniteGrok just sent us a link to a McCain conference call from about a week ago that they recorded and then posted for their readers.
So Grok beats Swamp.
Even if we're not sure that we would describe Grok (or GMP1) as a "major news organization".
The Boston Globe and Boston.com have created an imaginative new channel for voters to have their say about the current presidential race in a cutting-edge blog called "Primary Voices." The Globe's political team recruited more than 40 voters from three New Hampshire towns to blog about the Granite State's first-in-the-nation primary. The blog has been up for a couple of weeks, and already has dozens of contributions.40 citizen Clackers clacking creates one very effective Web 2.0 NH Primary focus group.
Smart. Smart. Smart.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Granite state voters don't normally get all hot and bothered over campaign surrogates.
First-in-the-nation residents expect to see the actual candidate 7 or 8 times, so who cares about the candidate's friend?
But this "candidate's friend", this time, might be different.
Because Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is coming to Manchester on Wednesday, December 5th to do a campaign meet and greet with Senator McCain.
Mr. Bloody Sock.
Mr. Red Sox Two World Championships.
Mr. I Bring The Gas In Clutch Situations & You Love Me For It Red Sox Nation.
Mr. I Love John McCain So Let Me Sign Some Autographs, Take Some Pictures And Tell You All About It.
This could work out well.
Certainly better than a typical Granite State presidential surrogate.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Friday, November 23, 2007
"So, how is Ron Paul going to do in New Hampshire?"
We've been getting that question a lot lately.
A whole lot.
To which we give our standard answer, "We have absolutely no idea."
We noticed solid grassroots support for Dr. Paul in New Hampshire back in June. And Paul has been spending good chunks of money in the Granite State for several weeks.
But how that translates at the ballot box, with this particular candidate and his unorthodox campaign, we have no idea.
So pick a number between 5 and 15%.
No seriously, pick a number.
In the meantime, Team Paul has another number for you - 12.
As in 12 million.
Which is what Team Paul expects to raise (minimum) in the 4th quarter.
Hold. On. Tight.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Massive ad buys (and Bain Capital) helped turn this pizza chain around.
But can massive ad buys (on behalf of a former Bain Capital head) elect a man President?
Pizza. President. Pizza. President. Pizza. President.
It's the about the same thing isn't it?
H/T Dante Scala, one of New Hampshire's best, for the Romney ad buy numbers.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
As in, we're eating it.
Daddy always said, "You win some and you lose some."
And, on the narrow question of when Gardner will actually schedule the primary, we were wrong.
Because New Hampshire is going in January.
Not December like we had predicted.
GMP1 doesn't understand the decision.
But that's why he's Mr. Gardner.
And we're just Clacker.
Maureen Orth has a piece up in Vanity Fair about the decline of Washington society.
Which, although far from DC's biggest problem at the moment, is still a problem
Video killed the radio star.
Of course, these things move in cycles.
And DC is still searching for the next Kay Graham.
Who replaced the late Alice Roosevelt Longworth.
Who took over from...
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
The WaPo's Walter Pincus has an interesting story up about how the U.S. State Department has started using "digital outreach teams" to play communications offense/defense on "influential" Arabic blogs.
Which is good.
Because someone has to explain (away?) Fortress America to the internet class.
Ah bloggers and blogging.
We're growing up so fast.
Breaking news from down yonder.
Ole Miss will host the first (real) 2008 presidential debate on September 26th.
About 300 days from now.
Who will be '08's Mouth From The South?
Here is the problem for New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation:
Wyoming is selecting its GOP delegates on January 5th.
Conventional wisdom says that Gardner will set a January 8th date for New Hampshire.
Wyoming gets about as many delegates (percentage) as New Hampshire does.
So what happens if the winner of Wyoming is not the same as the winner of New Hampshire?
Well, the Wyoming winner wouldn't be making a "perfect" argument on January 9th if he said, "Team Romney/McCain might have taken New Hampshire yesterday, but we took Wyoming 3 days ago. And we both got about the same number of delegates."
But it's not a terrible argument either. Especially for a campaign that is forced by circumstance (they lost!) to make it.
Muddied messages the day after the New Hampshire Primary is something Bill Gardner would really like to avoid.
Which is why we still think that a New Hampshire December Primary is the most likely.
In our humble opinion.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
We're on the road tomorrow so we're rolling out R & R Monday a tad early.
We don't want the New Hampshire political scene (and beyond) to go without.
So here's a double shot to ease folks into their week.
Happy Monday everyone.
Canadian rock (h/t to our friend at the Union Leader for an earlier clarification):
Clever, fun and hitting all the right notes.
Also Noted: We thought Huck had a strong performance on Fox New Sunday this morning.
So did Mark Halperin:
Fox News Sunday: Huckabee has a newsless, strong, unflappable perf, in which he assails Thompson on abortion and defends tax record and ethics (after Chris Wallace suggests he was “Clintonian”).-------------
(UPDATED) Thompson communications flak Todd Harris had the following response to Huckabee's Chuck Norris ad:
“With his new campaign ad featuring Chuck Norris, Mike Huckabee has confused celebrity endorsement with serious policy."Interesting line of attack.
Considering that many people believe Team Thompson has confused B-level Hollywood celebrity with a serious presidential candidate.
Not even the great Dana Carvey can keep a straight face about Thompson:
Mike Luo has a piece up in today's New York Times on immigration and the GOP.
It's well worth the read.
We've never understood what's so difficult for the Republicans on this issue (besides the xenophobia).
It should be an easy call - Secure the boarders (or at least make them "more" secure) while at the same time creating a path to citizenship for the 20 million illegal immigrants already here.
Comprehensive immigration reform is a national security, economic and electoral map no brainer.
Or, to put it another way - Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida.
But why would the GOP want any of that action in 2008 (and beyond)?
Saturday, November 17, 2007
We've been saying for 10 months that the current primary calendar is a clusterf*ck.
And guess what, it still is.
With no end in sight.
Of course, GMP1 still believes that the NH Primary is going to be in December. And yes, we recognize that we hold the minority position.
That said, we think the thing to watch over the next few days (weeks) is if Bill Gardner sets a December date do some 1st tier campaigns pull out of New Hampshire and not compete as they have been threatening to do behind closed doors?
Hard to imagine.
But then again...
Friday, November 16, 2007
Mitt Romney is blaming the 2002 McCain-Feingold legislation for recent anti-Mormon push polls in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Here goes Willard. Again.
Jay Carney at Swampland writes-up Mitt Flop's latest:
John McCain must be causing Mitt Romney some serious heartburn in New Hampshire. How else to explain Romney's magnificently absurd claim that the recently-reported push polls attacking Romney's Mormonism are somehow the fault of...that's right, John McCain -- more specifically, the campaign finance reform law known as McCain-Feingold, which passed in 2002. Politico's Jonathan Martin has the story here. Of course, push polling existed long before McCain-Feingold became law, as Mark Salter, McCain's senior aide, alter ego and co-author points out in this lacerating riposte:Back when Governor Romney was calling for public financing and taxing political donations, and before McCain-Feingold was passed, push polling was, regrettably, alive and well in American politics. Anyone who spent a day in South Carolina in 2000 can testify to that. It is not a surprise that Governor Romney would use even an attack on him to make yet another hypocritical statement. It is the hallmark of his campaign.
There are plenty of good-faith criticisms you could make about the McCain-Feingold law -- that it goes too far, or not far enough, or that, short of public financing (and probably even then), money can't be removed from politics so why bother. You can reasonably argue, as George Will and Mitch McConnell and other outright opponents of campaign spending restrictions do, that the amount of money involved in politics is relatively small and not a serious problem and that McCain-Feingold is an unjustified abridgement of the First Amendment. But for Romney to suggest that McCain-Feingold is to blame for the ugly anti-Mormon calls being made against him is more than a stretch.
Team Giuliani has flatly denied having anything to do with the anti-Mormon calls.
Said Giuliani Communications Director Katie Levinson:
“There is no room for this sort of thing in politics. Our campaign does not support or engage in these types of tactics and it is our hope other campaigns will adhere to the same policy.”That's about as concrete a denial as one will find in politics.
So, in fairness to Team Giuliani (and our readers) we're passing that information along.
We might be snarky. But we want to be fair.
Now the only question is (still) "Whodunnit?"
McCain Makes A Statement On NH Phone Calls, Which Begs The Question - Can Rudy Call For An Investigation Of Himself?
Johnny Mac is outraged. And calling for an investigation:
ARLINGTON, VA — U.S. Senator John McCain’s New Hampshire Vice Chair, former Congressman Chuck Douglas (R-NH), along with the campaign’s New Hampshire Leadership Committee, today issued the following statement on reports of push polling in New Hampshire:
“Today, the McCain New Hampshire Leadership Committee intends to file a complaint with the New Hampshire Attorney General’s office seeking a full investigation to determine who was behind the push poll. The Leadership Committee calls on all the other Republican campaigns to join us as parties to this complaint. These tactics are repugnant and despicable and there is no place in New Hampshire politics for push polling or any other negative tactics that engage in personal attacks. It is especially shameful that those responsible would hide behind a push poll to impugn a candidate’s faith.”
Senator John McCain issued the following statement today:
“I applaud my Leadership Team for taking action against these cowardly acts. I call on all other candidates and their supporters to repudiate these attacks and join me in pledging not to engage in such despicable tactics throughout the balance of this campaign. I am outraged by the cowardly telephone calls that hide behind my name in an effort to disparage one candidate and advance the candidacy of another. I was a target of these same tactics in South Carolina in 2000 and believe the American people deserve better from those who seek the high office of the presidency.”
So does most of the "smart money" at this point.
We "understand" that when the boys at Western Wats--->(?)Tarrance Group--->(?)Team Giuliani aren't making polling calls in Iowa and New Hampshire regarding Mitt Romney's Mormonism, their phone team likes to keep their vocal chords fresh with some regular old prank calls.
And we've managed to get our hands on a copy of one of those prank calls.
"Pounds baby, pounds!"
Happy Friday everyone!
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Good heavens to Betsy!
The AP's Phill Elliott has the score.
So does Jon Martin.
We don't know what to make of this story yet.
Or, as a smart reporter friend of ours just told us, "sometimes a poll is just a poll".
Because no one would believe that (NYcentric) Team Giuliani would be stupid enough to do a push poll in New Hampshire? On religion?
This is about 48 hours old at this point, an eternity in the blogger world.
But we just love this video.
Why do the Democrats (seem to?) do such a better job of creative, humorous web videos than the Republicans?
And this video is so good because not only is it fun, but it serves a real purpose.
As Team Hillary Iowa's email list is surely finding out.
It's a tough night for Team Romney Iowa.
A really, really tough night.
Really though, who skips the Fox/Iowa debate?
It's the state party's own event.
We're betting that Team Huckabee is "very disappointed with Team Romney's decision".
And letting everyone in Iowa know it.
Game f*cking on.
Mark Penn releases a pro-Hillary memo on the afternoon of the Dem debate...
Which RNC Communications Director Danny Diaz promptly throws the kitchen sink at:
“It is good to see that the Clinton camp can maintain a sense of humor after the worst two weeks of their campaign. Before they start drafting memos on general election strategy, someone ought to write a plan to stop Hillary Clinton’s sinking poll numbers in the early states or figure out where their candidate stands on Social Security, tax reform, and driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants.”Snarky.
Give $ credit. The guy might throw an elbow (or six), but since he took over a few weeks ago we're getting more email from the RNC than from most of the presidential communication shops.
Who says the RNC is beaten down?
Noted: Now, about their '08 (and beyond) message...
NH Dem Comm Directors "Batton Down The Hatches", Clacker To Do Radio Tomorrow Morning To Discuss Tonight's Debate
GMP1 will be chatting with Arnie Arnesen at about 6:30am tomorrow to discuss tonight's debate in Nevada.
Catch us on the radio at 1110 AM (if you live in southern NH or northern MA).
Or the live stream is here.
Of all the campaign teams in all the states, one team in particular must be feeling the heat - Team Romney Iowa.
Because here come The Huck.
Even though he's operating at a 4,912,323,295 to 1 spending disadvantage!
Huck has come a long (looooooong) way since we referred to him as "the former southern fat boy" 12 months ago.
Good for him.
H/T RCP for the great graph.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Curt Schilling endorsed John McCain today.
Said the Red Sox great:
"I gotta go with McCain," said Schilling. "As we get through this, and we start to hear things, I'm not voting party line anymore. I'm voting for the guy that I know is going to be the same person four years from now that he was when [he was] elected. I need to trust somebody because I don't agree with anybody's platform front to back. I just need to know that the person that I'm putting in the office is not going to... people don't want to hear this but President Bush has stayed very true to what he's wanted, and what he's done, and I just think the office is bigger than any one person. I need somebody that I can trust to do right by the country and stick to their guns."This is going to be good for a vote or two in New Hampshire.
And how about that surrogate visit?
Crystal Ball: Why We Think Rudy Giuliani Will End Up Being Pure Poison For New Hampshire's First-In-The-Nation
Everyone knows that we play favorites on this blog.
And everyone knows that Rudy Giuliani rubs us the wrong way for a variety of reasons.
No news there.
But biased though we are, we know a thing or two about New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. Just as we know a little something about the candidates who are competing in it.
And for 9 months we've been flabbergasted by Team Rudy's February 5th strategy. We think it's bunk. And we've said so. Repeatedly.
And for 9 months we've argued that the big loser in all this (besides Hiz Honor) will be New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.
Because the day after the New Hampshire Primary, when Mitt Romney or John McCain is celebrating their hard fought victory, Team Rudy is going to slink onto the cable talk shows and kick the everlasting snot out of the "significance" of a first-in-the-nation win.
They're going to have to.
Of course, what Rudy's people say the day after the primary will have absolutely no chance of slowing Romney or McCain's momentum out of New Hampshire, hence our disregard of a February 5th strategy.
But what Team Rudy's highly polished and well delivered negative comments will do is sit and wait for that time after the 2008 election when decisions are going to be made about how to clean up the primary process moving forward, and then the derogatory remarks will be everywhere.
Carl Levin and company will see to that.
Can't anyone else hear Chris Mathews screaming, "14 months ago Rudy Giuliani raised a good point when he said that the New Hampshire Primary has too much influence picking a candidate. Should New Hampshire, with it's handful of delegates, be first? Let's play Hardball!"?
This will hurt New Hampshire as it attempts to hold onto its first-in-the-nation relevance. It will hurt big time.
Of course, we might not know what we're talking about.
But then again...
Hiz Honor is up with a massive ad buy in New Hampshire.
We think the ad, titled "Tested", is well done.
However, we were disappointed that Team Giuliani decided not to go with our suggestion, titled "Foreign Policy", even though we sent the campaign a rough draft of what the ad might look like.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
This is the worst piece of new media garbage that we've seen in a VERY long while.
Do we mean that it's so bad that it's good?
Sorry fellas (we certainly hope that you didn't actually bill anyone for this).
This is fast becoming the #1 yawn story of the cycle.
Noted: Can the media be so stupid as to actually believe that this story is being discussed around America's kitchen tables?
Anyway, the folks at CNN might want probe little Ms. 'I'd be happy to ask a planted question' about her statement describing her back and forth with Clinton's staff:
"Well, I don't know if that's a good idea because I'm not sure how familiar she (Clinton) is with her plan."Riiiiiight.
We're calling bullsh*t on that on.
Love or hate Hillary Clinton, that lady knows her stuff.
This whole thing is a convoluted yawner.
Change the channel.
Johnny Mac is the candidate most qualified to be President.
Period. End of story.
Of course, you don't have to take just our word for it.
John Edwards is up with a 2nd ad in Iowa.
Noted: He's mad as hell about health care in this country and he's not going to take it anymore!
Noted 2: The country is mad as hell about health care in this country and we don't want to take it anymore!
This is a smart ad.
And another small example of why we've always said that if anyone can stop Hillary "general election campaign" Clinton, it will be John "first you got to beat me in a primary and I'm to the left of you" Edwards.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Time's Ana Marie Cox has the details.
Mark Salter's takeaway criticism of Mitt:
I might also add that in Romney's statement he criticized McCain for circumventing campaign finance laws and then criticized the law itself. He flip-flops in a single attack, which I think might be a first in this business.Mitt Romney sure has seen a lot of "flop-firsts" on the '08 campaign trail (in our humble opinion).
Which begs the question, does Howard Wolfson take several months off if Romney is his boss' general election opponent?
Mr. Tancredo, you're one hell of a fear monger, but it's time for you to drop out of the race.
We just had to say it.
Tom Matzzie, the man behind MoveOn's "General Betray Us" ad, will play a key role in determining how the Democrats will spend soft money in the 2008 cycle, Ben Smith and Chris Cillizza report.
It's a big job managing $100 million dollars.
And, by hiring Matzzi, it's a job going to a tone deaf clown.
Matzzie is so blinded by his hatred of Bush (and by his self-perceived self-importance) that he's lost all sense of how to communicate effectively.
Question: Does anyone other than Matzzie and his merry band of morons believe that General Betray Us? was anything other than a colossal failure?
But hey, at least it's not our money.
The day the NYT's entire editorial staff jumped out a window.
GOP game players are already looking towards November 2010.
When there is the CHANCE that there MIGHT be a two party system again.
If the GOP can get its message in order.
H/T to our grandmother for the original newspaper. She has enjoyed a 50 year run in Washington DC. And never thrown anything out.
From Saturday's JJ dinner in Iowa.
Worth a watch.
But game changing?
***C O N F I D E N T I A L***
TO: NEW HAMPSHIRE LEADERSHIP
FROM: MIKE DENNEHY -- NATIONAL POLITICAL DIRECTOR
DATE: NOVEMBER 11, 2007
RE: NH POLLING and THE COMEBACK CONTINUES
Today, John McCain wrapped up another successful 3-day swing through New Hampshire. He attended the Union Leader’s Santa Fund luncheon with a few hundred people, the Marine Corp Annual Birthday Luncheon with over 200 people, held a Town Hall meeting in Rochester with 300 voters, shook hands at the UNH-BC Hockey game (he was good luck as they won 5-2 and Brad Flashaines from Arizona scored the winning goal), and then he attended the ceremony at the State Veteran’s Cemetery in Boscawen. By the end of the trip, John had covered over 400 miles, met about 1,500 people and signed up numerous new volunteers for the New Hampshire organization.
We also received some very good news from The Boston Globe poll that was released today. Andy Smith, of the UNH Survey Center, conducted the poll and he was quoted as saying the race is “still really open”. While the ballot indicates that Romney has 32, Rudy 20 and John 17, it doesn’t discuss the important numbers inside the numbers.
Of significance, only 16% of those sampled have “definitely decided” who they are voting for in the Primary. And of those 16%, the race is a dead heat with Romney at 29%, John at 24% and Rudy at 24%. However, the best news of the entire poll for our campaign in New Hampshire, is that since Andy Smith’s last poll at the end of September, John has increased his “definitely decided” from 10% to 24% – a 240% gain. Romney has only increased 4 points and Rudy only 3. This further illustrates the momentum that John has in New Hampshire and is a sign of good news to come. It also proves what we have known all along – when John McCain meets voters, looks them in the eye, and gives them “straight talk”, they are boarding the bus for good!
This shift in momentum has a similar feel as in the 2000 campaign. Crowds at our Town Hall meetings are growing and getting much more enthusiastic, veterans are showing up at campaign events in droves, and phone calls and emails to our headquarters are keeping our volunteers overtime.
You will see John in every corner of the state in the weeks ahead and we’ll need your help more than ever. As more and more voters tune in to the race, we expect to have the same success converting undecideds into supporters. We need to grow our local organizations and turn your friends and neighbors into supporters too. If this conversion rate holds, we’ll be taking the lead for good on, or even earlier than, January 8 – when we EXPECT the Primary to be held.
Also, we are excited to announce the first-of-its kind, for the First-in-the-Nation, New Hampshire specific media team for the campaign. The team includes Jim Burke, of Burke Advertising in Merrimack, Sean Owen, of wedu in Manchester, and Paul Young, of Calypso Communications in Portsmouth. The New Hampshire media team will develop campaign ads and ask supporters and voters to choose the one they like best through grassroots activities and through the website: www.VoteMcCainAd.com.
Over the coming weeks, the three individuals will create their own ads and unveil them at house parties, campaign leadership meetings, and via the Internet. Each ad will be voted on and the ad that wins the largest amount of votes will be aired in New Hampshire shortly after it is chosen.
Thank you for your hard work. While our success starts at the top with John McCain, we all know that our campaign volunteers are the ones on the front lines doing the hard work and delivering our message for John to people he can’t reach himself.
Stay tuned and get ready for the real fun to begin!
Perhaps the greatest songwriter of all time.
Of. All. Time.
And though we suspect that this week's cut will be more popular in Dem offices than it will be in Republican offices (stereotypes, STEREOTYPES!), we think everyone will enjoy it.
Happy Monday everyone
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Friday, November 09, 2007
16 Felony Counts.
A 29 Page Indictment.
And just so everyone is crystal clear, Bernard Kerik was Rudy's main guy. For years. Including during the time that Kerik was allegedly participating in criminal activity.
Rudy and Kerik were so close that Hiz Honor went to the Bush White House and asked that the President appoint Kerik to be head of the Department of Homeland Security.
What more does the Gang of 500 need to know about Rudy Giuliani, his judgement and the way that he does business?
We don't even need snark for this one.
Because the Kerik indictment is going to leave a just and lasting mark on Giuliani's candidacy all by itself.
Dana Carvey. He gets us everytime.
And to celebrate a very special Friday for us (two '08 presidential campaign staffers will know exactly what we're talking about, bless their patient souls) we're offering three times the funny.
If you all think you can handle it.
Happy Friday everyone!
SNL - Dana Carvey as George Bush, Sr.
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Thursday, November 08, 2007
Over at Real Clear Politics Steven Stark is arguing that Huckabee has to WIN Iowa or he's finished.
Considering the fact that almost the entire Gang of 500 has underestimated, misread or just plain ignored Mike Huckabee's year long march to where he stands today, I'm sure Huck will take Mr. Stark's attempt at expectation setting with a good deal of salt.
If he takes it at all.
We're just saying.
Humor & Creativity Are Most Effective At Driving Political Narratives On The Web? Oh Doesn't GMP1 Know It!
Front page above the fold piece in today's WaPo about the role the web is playing in the 2008 presidential race.
It's worth a skim.
Meanwhile, take a 2nd look at the picture above.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
John Harris and Jim VandeHei have the (latest) score on the battle going on in the GOP over what to do about the global warming issue.
It's well worth the read.
Our two cents - moving off fossil fuels (that's "off", not "more drilling" and "more refineries") is a national strategic decision that will make this country a hell of a lot more secure.
GOP. National security. GOP. National security. GOP. National security.
Put that in your direct mail piece and smoke it.
Noted: This is also an issue that brings patchouli wearing, Volvo driving, Whole Foods shopping, Golden Retriever owning, suburban living "independents" to the table in a big way.
But why would the GOP want a piece of that action?
They did so well with just the hardcore base in '06.
We don't buy much "conventional wisdom".
But we have bought the CW that New Hampshire is Hillary country and that Clinton will win the first-in-the-nation primary.
For 12 months Clinton's people have been making this argument, the polls have (mostly) supported them and, most importantly, so has what we've seen on the ground with our own two eyes.
Noted: Don't worry Team Edwards, we like what you've been doing on the ground in the Granite State. Very impressive. And, it will pay off.
But Edwards doesn't have to win New Hampshire.
We think Hillary Clinton does.
Inevitability is a fun mistress, but she's a stickler about a little thing called "expectations".
And if the expectation is that HRC will win the New Hampshire Primary and then she doesn't (or only squeaks through), it's a problem.
How big a problem only time can tell.
But the latest Rasmussen poll can't make Team Clinton feel all that great.
No matter what they might spin.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
We're political hacks. Not economic hacks.
But we know "economic smarts" when we see it (or are friends with it).
And Steve Christ of Wealth Daily has an article up about rate cuts, inflation and the U.S. dollar that is well worth the read.
Hat tip to "you know who you are" for passing along the article.
Meanwhile, we're going long on semi-precious, uncut stones.
And building a moat.
"Orson Swindle? What The Hell Does He Know? Don't You Know That Sometimes I Fly Coach? COACH!" (UPDATED)
Rudy Giuliani may or may not be a "mean son of a bitch".
But the way Rudy thinks about the world (a noun, a verb and 9/11) certainly makes him a "scary son of a bitch".
Which explains Richard Cohen's must-read column today in the WaPo.
Of course, we here at GMP1 don't need fancy columns to describe the way that Hiz Honor sees the world.
All we need is YouTube, a sense of movie history and presto - Rudy talks about his plans for foreign policy!
Statement from McCain Veterans Advisory Committee Chair
MANCHESTER, NH — U.S. Senator John McCain’s New Hampshire Veterans Advisory Committee Chair Sergeant Major Paul Chevalier, USMC (Ret.), today issued the following statement:
“Last week, Rudy Giuliani implied that he had experienced the torture of sleep deprivation while running for president. His hyperbole is an insult to all American soldiers who have had to endure real torture and mistreatment while in enemy hands. This practice was common during the Vietnam War. One of John McCain’s closest friends, LtCol. Orson Swindle, USMC (Ret.), was subjected to this treatment while he was held as a P.O.W. in North Vietnam and can personally assure Mayor Giuliani that the experience was far more severe than the loss of sleep he experiences as a candidate. I call on Mayor Giuliani to apologize to LtCol. Swindle and all of our courageous veterans who have had to persevere through this heinous experience as well as other torturous acts while serving their country and recognize how he belittled that service and sacrifice through his comments.”
Team Thompson just keeps on keeping on.
Yesterday in New Hampshire Freddy T told Fox News Carl Cameron that he didn't expect that he would be President.
The end of the world?
But certainly another example of how the Thompson narrative has been built.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Before online political communities (and the operatives who make money off their new media "know how") get over-the-top giddy about Ron Paul raising $3 million dollars online in one day, folks should try and remember one thing -
Ron Paul's message is what raised the 3 million bucks. Not his web operation.
No message. No money.
Yes, the internet is a wonderful tool for political organizing and it is a wonderful tool for raising money.
But even a sophisticated grasp of Web tools will not bring any significant money without a (real) message to push.
Paul has a message to push. A message that is catching. A message that we have been watching sweep across New Hampshire since last June.
The "status quo is fine, we guess" wing of the Republican Party needs to take a good hard look at what Ron Paul did today.
And they need to start making some alternative plans.
Rudy is in NH today.
Re-introducing himself to voters.
Meanwhile, a rumor around the campfire is that Rudy's old buddy Kerik will be popping up in the news again today.
That's not a party.
Change the conversation.
Chaaaaaaaaaaaaaange the conversation!