Wednesday, August 20, 2008

GMP1 As Canary In A Coal Mine (again)

Via David Broder's latest column:

Plouffe [Obama's campaign manager] said that "turnout is the big variable," and the campaign is devoting an unusually large budget to register scads of new voters and bring them to the polls. "That's how we win the Floridas and Ohios," he said, mentioning two states that went narrowly for George W. Bush. "And that's how we get competitive in the Indianas and Virginias," two of six or seven states that long have been Republican -- but are targets this year.

"That's why I pay more attention to the registration figures than to the polls I see at this time of year," Plouffe said. "The polls will change, but we know we need 200,000 new voters to be competitive in Georgia, and now is when we have to get them."
And Plouffe is putting his money where his mouth is (or not putting his money).

But meanwhile, David Brooks sees Unhappy Warrior McCain doing better right now then he thinks that Happy Warrior McCain would be doing.

We don't happen to believe this, but we recognize that we're in the minority opinion right now.

Campaign strategy is a funny thing. Months and months and months of set-up to lock in that final 14-day push and election day narrative.

Remember, many people thought that Rudy Giuliani's Florida strategy was great ("Hey, look at our national numbers! We're strong baby! Strong!").

Right up until the Florida Primary.

And by then it was far too late.