Tuesday, October 02, 2007

We're No Senior Political Strategist, But We're Calling Bullsh*t On This

Jon Martin has gotten his hands on color-coded maps that Team Giuliani is using to show "what they believe to be Giuliani's anticipated general election strength versus Hillary Clinton compared to how other GOP candidates might fare against her".

Check out Martin's very good post here.

We get it - "inevitability" and "electability".

And total bullsh*t.

Because Team Giuliani "concedes" only 18 electoral votes to Team Clinton - from Massachusetts and Vermont.

Meanwhile, Giuliani starts with 210 electoral votes (you need to crack 270 to win).

So does Team Giuliani honestly believe that their guy puts 310 electoral votes into play?

If so, the Manhattanites are either incredibly stupid or incredibly arrogant and stupid. Take your pick.

Hillary Clinton is going to have at least a 2 to 1 spending advantage over her Republican rival no matter who that Republican rival is (unless Romney self-funds).

Does anyone believe that Rudy Giuliani is going to spend general election money in a place like California (read: liberal media market that ain't going Republican in the '08 presidential) when he is at a 2 to 1 spending disadvantage?

No way.

Team Giuliani can talk all they want about "turning Blue states Red" but the fact is that Hillary Clinton is going to own the Northeast and West Coast states. And no GOP candidate will have the money to stop her from carrying those states. Even Rudy.

Furthermore, Rudy is going to have to spend some (not much, but "some") money in traditional red states to shore up his Republican support (although he will have to spend less if HRC is the nominee). Which makes the idea that he will compete in a state like Washington even more ridiculous.

No matter how badly Team Giuliani wishes (or spins) otherwise, there are very few "real" purple states in the 2008 Presidential General Election.

And those "real" purple areas are the battleground areas of the Great Lakes - Mississippi River region, the near West and Southwest, Pennsylvania and Florida.

And we're sure that Rudy Giuliani is very competitive in those areas.

But so are a lot of other Republican candidates.